Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle

How to read the 4-Year Cycle

Bitcoin's price history is divided into four recurring phases, each anchored to the halving schedule. The halving occurs roughly every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks) and reduces the new supply of Bitcoin by half. Historically, this supply shock has driven a predictable sequence of market phases.

• Bear Market (weeks 80–135 after halving) — The post-peak accumulation window. Price has corrected significantly from the cycle top. Long-term holders accumulate while sentiment is low. Historically the best risk/reward entry point for patient investors.
• Recovery (week 135 after halving → next halving) — Momentum returns as the next halving approaches. Price gradually recovers and new capital enters the market in anticipation of the supply reduction. A steady DCA zone.
• Bull Market (weeks 0–68 after new halving) — The supply shock from the halving takes effect. Demand outpaces new supply, driving prices higher. Historically the strongest return phase of the cycle.
• Euphoria (weeks 68–80 after halving) — The final phase of the bull cycle. Price typically reaches its peak in this window as retail FOMO accelerates. Every previous cycle top has occurred here. Consider taking significant profits.

The vertical dashed lines mark each halving date. Note that these are fixed time-based phases — actual market tops and bottoms do not always align perfectly with the model. Use this alongside on-chain indicators like NUPL, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple for confirmation.