200-Week Moving Average

How to read the 200-Week Moving Average

The 200-week moving average (200WMA) is the average Bitcoin closing price over the last ~1,400 days — roughly 3.8 years. It moves very slowly and represents Bitcoin's deepest long-term trend. This indicator shows how far, in percentage terms, the current price sits above that baseline.

Why 200 weeks? The 200WMA is slow enough to filter out every cycle's noise and capture only the structural growth trend. Because Bitcoin has a hard-coded 4-year halving cycle, the 200WMA acts as a kind of gravity well that price orbits around across full cycles.

• Below 0% — Below 200W MA — Price is under the 200-week average. This has happened only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history — each occasion was followed by a decisive recovery. Historically the most extreme long-term buy zone.
• 0% – 100% — DCA Zone — Price is near its long-term anchor — the level that has historically acted as Bitcoin's gravitational floor. Buyers who built positions here in past cycles captured the majority of Bitcoin's total gains. The ideal zone to dollar-cost average steadily without rushing.
• 100% – 300% — Mid-Late Cycle — Bitcoin is meaningfully extended above its long-term baseline — historically mid to late cycle territory. Continuing your DCA, holding steady, or gradually reducing exposure are all reasonable approaches depending on how the full picture reads. Cross-reference with other indicators before deciding.
• Above 300% — Euphoria Zone — Bitcoin is far above its 200-week anchor. Price can still go higher — and in past cycles it often has. But every time this zone was reached, a significant correction eventually followed. A reasonable moment to consider taking some profits rather than adding new positions.

The three dashed lines on the chart mark the 0%, 100%, and 300% levels. Notice how cycle bottoms have historically formed near the 0% line, and cycle peaks near or above the 300% line. This visual rhythm is one of the most consistent patterns in Bitcoin's price history.

Pair with the Rainbow Chart for a logarithmic regression perspective on the same long-term trend story.