MVRV Z-Score

How to read the MVRV Z-Score

MVRV stands for Market Value to Realised Value. Market Value is Bitcoin's current market cap — price multiplied by circulating supply. Realised Value is the sum of every Bitcoin in existence valued at the price it last moved on-chain — the network's aggregate cost basis.

The raw difference (Market Cap − Realised Cap) tells you how much aggregate unrealised profit or loss the network holds. The Z-Score normalises this figure against its own historical standard deviation, making cycle peaks and troughs directly comparable across Bitcoin's entire history regardless of the size of the market.

• Below 0 — Strong Buy — The average Bitcoin holder is sitting at an unrealised loss. This has occurred only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history — each instance was followed by a full recovery and new all-time highs. Historically the deepest and most reliable long-term buy zone.
• 0 – 4 — DCA Zone — Bitcoin is fairly valued relative to its aggregate cost basis. No extreme signal. The ideal range to accumulate steadily through a dollar-cost averaging strategy without rushing.
• 4 – 7 — Caution — The average holder is sitting on significant unrealised gains. Historically this marks late bull market territory. Continuing your DCA is reasonable, but avoid increasing position size aggressively and consider preparing to reduce exposure.
• Above 7 — Overheated — Every previous visit above 7 preceded a major market correction. The market is pricing in extreme optimism relative to the network's cost basis. A reasonable time to consider taking some profits rather than adding new positions.

The three dashed lines on the chart mark the 0, 4, and 7 thresholds. Notice how the Z-Score has reliably bounded the cycle extremes — bottoms below 0 and tops above 7 — across every major Bitcoin cycle since 2011.

Pair with the Puell Multiple for a complementary on-chain perspective on miner-side market cycles.