NUPL

How to read NUPL

NUPL stands for Net Unrealised Profit/Loss. It is calculated as:

NUPL = (Market Cap − Realised Cap) / Market Cap

Market Cap is Bitcoin's current price multiplied by circulating supply. Realised Cap is the sum of every Bitcoin valued at the price it last moved on-chain — the network's aggregate cost basis. The difference tells you the total unrealised profit or loss sitting across the entire network. Dividing by market cap normalises it to a 0–1 scale, making cycles directly comparable regardless of Bitcoin's size at the time.

• Below 0 — Capitulation — The network as a whole is at an unrealised loss. The average holder paid more than today's price. This has occurred only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history — every single instance was followed by a full recovery and new all-time highs. Historically the most reliable long-term buy zone.
• 0 – 0.5 — Hope / Optimism — Holders are in modest collective profit. No extreme signal in either direction. The ideal range for steady dollar-cost averaging without urgency.
• 0.5 – 0.75 — Belief / Thrill — The network sits on significant collective gains. Historically this range corresponds to late bull market territory. Consider slowing new purchases and preparing your exit strategy.
• Above 0.75 — Euphoria — Extreme collective profit. Every previous visit above 0.75 preceded a major market correction. At this level the market is pricing in maximum optimism. A reasonable time to take profits rather than add new positions.

The three dashed lines mark the 0, 0.5, and 0.75 thresholds. Notice how NUPL has cleanly bounded the cycle extremes — bottoms below 0 and tops above 0.75 — across every major Bitcoin cycle since 2011.

NUPL and the MVRV Z-Score are closely related — both are derived from the gap between market cap and realised cap. NUPL expresses that gap as a simple percentage of market cap, making it more intuitive. The MVRV Z-Score additionally normalises against historical volatility, making it more sensitive to early-cycle extremes. Use both together for a fuller picture.